I will wager that by November, Republicans will win much less seats than they hoped for let alone the reclaiming either the House or the Senate.
Just saying ‘no’ won’t win it for GOP
By David Frum, CNN Contributor May 24, 2010 7:22 a.m. EDT
Washington (CNN) — To understand the shape of the impending 2010 congressional elections, compare these two campaign ads from the recent special election in the 12th district of Pennsylvania. First, Republican Tim Burns: Message: Send a protest message to Washington. Notice that the word "no" is spoken or viewed five times in 30 seconds. No cap and trade. No health care deal. No more taxes and spending.
Next, Democrat Mark Critz:
It opens: "Political TV ads always talk about what we’ve lost. Well I’m Mark Critz, and as Jack Murtha’s director of economic development, we always looked ahead." Then followed five promises at least arguably related to job creation.
I don’t want to make too much of Mark Critz’s victory in Pennsylvania. It’s a historically Democratic district, heavily unionized. It voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
On the other hand, I don’t want to make too little of the victory either. If pro-Democratic, the district is not pro-Obama. It’s a district that mines coal for a living and hunts for fun, overwhelmingly white and socially conservative. John McCain carried the district in the 2008 presidential vote. In a strong Republican year like 2010, Burns, an effective candidate with deep personal roots in the district should have run strong here.
Instead Critz won handily, by a margin of more than 7 points.
Here is something for Republicans to consider:
Normally, challengers do not bother to develop much of a positive message in a recession year. "Things are awful — they’re in charge — vote for us" usually does the job.
