Many would have woken up to a new Houston Public Media Poll that shows Senator Wendy Davis down by 15 and Leticia Van De Putte down by similar numbers. It is not necessary to fool ourselves like Republicans did in 2012 when they simply assumed the polls were skewed. They deluded themselves. I remember talking to my Tea Party friends here in Kingwood. Even though polls showed Mitt Romney at best even, they mocked me about the shellacking the Democrats were going to take. They continued to use references from unskewedpolls.com. Of course we all know the President and Democrats won big in 2012.
I am happy to see that both Leticia Van De Putte and Wendy Davis down by similar amounts because it indicates that whatever premise was used by the poll, it is consistent across these candidates.
According to KHOU,
The poll of 781 likely voters was conducted by the Survey Research Center at University of Houston Center for Public Policy between Sept. 22 and Oct. 16. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
I believe the poll is absolutely correct for the instant in time it was taken and for the turnout model it was made for. Midterm polls generally assume that Liberals, Latinos, Blacks, and women will not show up to the polls. If that assumption materializes, Greg Abbott will win.
It is important to remember however that we all know Democratic values are the values of Texans. If during the early voting period up to election day we encourage our neighbors and friends to vote and ask them to encourage their neighbors and friends to vote, we can break the assumptions of the poll. It has been done before.
The takeaway should be this. We do not need to fool ourselves. We are down in this poll. We are currently losing. A poll does not have to be static. Because many of our people are likely telling pollsters they are not voting, they are not accounted for in polls. Additionally, pollsters generally do not count new voters as likely voters.
We must not get depressed from this new poll. We must use it to redouble our efforts to get real poor & middle working class Texans, Democrats, Independents, and disaffected Republicans that have an affinity for good government, good healthcare, and equal access to all, into the voting booth. Remind everyone of the following reasons they should vote for the Democratic slate.
Ignore the polls and give folks a reason to vote
So folks, raise your head up high and let’s win this thing for all the citizens of Texas.