By Dartagnan
Democrats are gradually but unmistakably chipping away at the artificial advantages the Republican Party rigged for itself to protect itself from the votes of the majority of the American people. From the New York Times, via MSN.com:
Slowly but surely, the considerable structural advantages — like incumbency, geography and gerrymandering — that give the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election are fading, giving Democrats a clearer path to a House majority in November.
Republicans formerly accustomed to the formidable protection racket of incumbency and gerrymandering have suddenly found the idea of spending more time with their families strangely appealing in the face of Trump-enraged Democrats who, in the words of Ted Cruz, “would crawl over broken glass” to vote this November. In addition to the overall offensiveness of Trump himself, recent court decisions invalidating or curbing the GOP’s partisan gerrymanders in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania have contributed to these sentiments:
[F]our court rulings have softened or even torn up Republican gerrymanders in four big states: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and most recently Pennsylvania, where the state Supreme Court struck down the congressional map last month.
The decisions in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia have already cost the Republicans a net of three House seats while generally eroding their position elsewhere in those states, giving Democrats better opportunities in 2018.
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It’s too early to have a good idea of how much Republicans might lose in Pennsylvania, but it is reasonable to expect that the new map will cost the party at least one seat and erode its position in several others.
Raw fury directed at Trump and his Republican enablers in the Congress has also resulted in an unusually high number of quality Democratic recruits in traditionally Republican, predominantly white working class districts:
The Republican incumbency advantage has diminished in another way: Democratic recruitment and fund-raising. A strong Democratic recruit — like a military veteran or an elected official — can cut into that advantage, especially with strong fund-raising numbers.
California is looking particularly perilous for Republicans this November, as it mirrors the trend of Republican incumbents nationally that are either jumping ship or finding themselves outspent–by a lot:
More than 40 House Republican incumbents were outraised in the final quarter of 2017 by one — or several — of their Democratic opponents, according to the latest round of fundraising numbers. And of that group, more than a dozen had less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers…[.]
Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), who’s cruised to reelection since the late 1980s, is facing two well-funded Democrats. Harley Rouda, a businessman, and Hans Keirstead, a stem-cell researcher, topped Rohrabacher in fundraising last quarter, while Rouda now holds a cash-on-hand advantage over the congressman. Rohrabacher’s traditionally Republican district in Orange County narrowly backed Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Democratic “bench” is less deep in some of the wealthier, more highly educated Republican districts, but this disadvantage is being compensated for by donations coming from the people that live in those Districts who are appalled by Trump and eager to make a statement in whatever way they can:
[T]he Democrats don’t have much of a bench at all in many of the well-educated but traditionally Republican districts where Mr. Trump struggled the most. Here it’s the Democratic fund-raising that is most impressive. Last quarter, 134 Democrats in 83 districts raised at least $100,000 in individual contributions. Those successes have been disproportionately concentrated in well-educated areas.
This seems to be shaping up as an election that will be swayed by most educated people in the country. As opposed to the last one.
Conor Lamb is running for Congress in a Special election to be held on March 13th for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, against a Republican named Rick Saccone. Republicans nationally are terrified of what a Democratic victory in this District could portend for November.
If there was any time to donate money to Mr. Lamb’s campaign, this would be it.
Original article at DailyKos