The mainstream media is hyperventilating about a great economy. However, most Americans are not feeling it. The notion of a good economy has two effects on unhappy voters that messaging can steer. We must explore that and how it could affect the impending Blue Wave, ripple, or outright Democratic embarrassment.
A great economy can be numerically tremendous but distributionally horrendous. That is the state of the American economy and Americans know it. When solutions are unknown, irrational blaming and prejudice can take hold.
But first, let us remember the following about this “great economy.”
Let’s look at the facts.
Fact number 1: Job growth was slower in Trump’s first full year than it has been at any time since 2011;
Fact number 2: The stock market grew nearly continuously under Obama, cumulatively by more than 47 percent, and its growth under Trump seems to have settled in at around 16 percent (with very high volatility, as you might expect from his ADHD economic policy);
Fact number 3: Annual GDP growth is about the same under Trump as it was under Obama;
Fact number 4: Trump’s insane tax cut will add at least $1.5 trillion to the debt;
Fact number 5: Trump’s trade war will raise prices for consumers and cut jobs in the future, and it’s causing volatility now;
Fact number 6: The already unconscionable income and wealth disparity our economy has seen since Reagan is getting worse as Trump’s tax cuts go disproportionally to the ultra-rich and corporations.
Both the Republican Party and the Establishment Wing of the Democratic Party continue to support policies that benefit the Plutocracy ensuring favorable treatment from both regulations and taxes. There is no reason why we tax investment income at a lower rate than the working person’s income. The worker risks limb and life while the investor risks capital. In our system capital has more value than humanity. John Atcheson says it best.
Both parties endorse policies centered on empowering industrialists and the financial community, often at the expense of workers, under the misguided notion that what’s good for business is good for America. Republicans, with their “supply-side, trickle-down, tax-cuts-for-the-rich” con, make no bones about this. Democrats are a little less direct—they back innovators and entrepreneurs, or investments in “advanced manufacturing.” But either way, business’s interests get represented, and the people’s do not. The aim of both parties is to fill their campaign coffers with money from the uber-rich and corporations.
So, it’s no wonder that the majority of folks simultaneously believe the economy is doing well, but they’re getting screwed. They are. Plain and simple. This is an extremely dangerous situation, politically. On the one hand, Trump is getting credit for managing the economy well. On the other, most people have reached the “we’re mad as hell, and we’re not going to take it anymore” stage, or they’ve gone past it to apathy. But either way, they know the system’s rigged and both parties have been guilty of a giant giveaway to the oligarchy.
Two groups are coalescing around this reality. One group wants to change the system, the other simply wants to blow it up. Many of those who want to change the system understand that the current fat-cat economy is largely a result of longstanding policies supported by both parties. They used to be Democrats. But now, they’re more interested in finding candidates who will advocate for affordable healthcare (especially single-payer); who will get money out of politics; stand up to industry, especially the gun lobby, pharmaceuticals, and Wall Street/big banks; and finally, they want a fair tax code that provides for the social safety net, not merely underwriting more corporate largess and greater income inequality. If they’re not offered such candidates, many will choose to stay home on election day.
The Democratic Party did reasonably well in California, but the turnout was less than expected than in 2014.
What is a problem is the rising idea of a “blue wave” that’s sweeping social media, and possibly the conference rooms at the Democratic National Committee? It’s starting to feel a lot like 2016.
Aside from overconfidence again leading to fatal mistakes, there’s a very real worrying trend: Voter turnout in the California primary was low. And this is supposed to be a “safe” Democratic state, despite pockets of conservatism in the wealthy suburbs. Voter turnout was 33.9 percent statewide, as of this writing a few points above the last midterm primary, in 2014. …
But why is turnout so low anyway, especially now when politics is ever present in many aspects of American life? Why isn’t the Democratic message catching fire? What is the Democratic message, anyway? There was a moment back in July 2017 when Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) presented the official party message: “A better deal.” Looking beyond the fact that the message bears all the bland hallmarks of overpaid consultants and focus groups, there’s something else wrong with what the Democratic Party is doing. …
Nationalizing the midterms obscures local issues that ordinarily would resonate but instead lead to a series of fait accompli elections to safe seats. The Cook Political Report estimates that only 25 out of 435 seats in Congress are in the “toss-up” category this year, while 336 seats are considered a solid lock for one party or the other. In presidential elections, the race invariably gets decided by a handful of districts in three or four swing states, regardless of how the majority of the population votes. That’s what makes a somewhat lackluster turnout in California more worrisome.
Given our current condition, the following is true.
The Democratic Party seems to think backing austerity and the status quo is a good campaign strategy. Look for a lower turnout in the midterms than we’ve seen for the off-year elections—which featured candidates who held left of center positions. And with lower turnout, Democratic gains are likely to be disappointing.
Which brings us to the rage-fueled group who want to blow up the system—mostly whites whose anger is amplified by the sense that they are losing their privileged place in society. These people will show up at the polls, and they will vote for Trump and for the Republican Party, which has been stoking the fires of hate, resentment, and bigotry for decades now. Some of these voters may even realize that Trump and his Republican enablers are essentially throwing a Molotov cocktail into the concept of governance, but that’s exactly why they like him. History tells us it is out of such cloth that despots are spawned and tyranny triumphs. Be afraid. Be very afraid.
PROGRESSIVES: We don’t need to get negative but proactive. The turnout issue is fixable if we start telling ALL voters why we will make their lives better. It is crucial that those who think the Blue Wave is a sure thing to do the work to make it a reality including letting Americans know that Progressive activist will be forcing the hand of every politician to ensure middle-class-centric and poor-centric policies.