Chris Bowers is feeling kind of "meh" about the prospect of large-scale Democratic losses in the 2010 midterms:
The current National House Ballot shows Democrats ahead by 2.80%. However, most of those polls focus on registered voters or even "all adults," not on likely voters. Current polling among likely voters by Rasmussen shows Republicans with a comfortable advantage. Lest you think that Rasmussen is to be dismissed, Daily Kos recently published information showing that 81% of Republicans will either definitely or probably vote in 2010, compared to only 56% of Democrats. Even Democracy Corps shows Democrats only ahead by 2% among likely voters. This means Rasmussen is not really much of an outlier, and Republicans are well positioned to make major gains. Retaking the House is even a possibility for the GOP.
My current feeling on this is a strong: "meh." Why should I care about Democrats facing such electoral difficulties? It is hard to figure out how this is much of a negative for progressives.Chris is one of my favorite bloggers and one of my first reads every morning. In those instances where I disagree with him, I almost always find his points to be well-taken. But I just do not understand his argument here, and I think it’s rather misguided.
I’ve compiled a list of the 39 Democratic-held House seats that are rated as "lean Democratic" or more vulnerable by the Cook Political Report; these include 35 seats held by incumbents and 4 where the Democratic incumbent is expected to retire. This echoes an analysis that Chris himself conducted — it’s just that I read the data very differently. Rather than worry about whether or not these Democrats label themselves as capital-P Progressive, I’ve instead compiled their votes on three key issues: the stimulus package, which passed the House 244-188 (with 11 Democrats in opposition); the health care bill, which passed 220-215 (39 Democratic nays), and the climate bill, which passed 219-212 (with 44 Democrats against). CONTINUED
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: This is Great News!!! For Progressives!!!
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