Great analysis by KOS. The real intent of the GOP is to demoralize the left causing them to stay home. As I have always said, an informed electorate is an unbeatable one.
Election prognosticator Charlie Cook (who I like and respect) has been quick to trash Democratic chances this November. Just a few short weeks ago, he said:
[It’s} very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House.
It was actually pretty easy to come up with a scenario where the GOP didn’t pick up nearly 40 seats, but Cook –who in December 2007 was predicting Democratic gains of 2-7 House seats in 2008 when they won 21 – was sticking to his guns.
It’s not a new phenomenon — the Beltway crowd is quick to pounce on perceived Democratic vulnerabilities, and slow to respond to Republican ones; just another facet of your liberal media at work. Still, it was a weird call for Cook to make, since Republicans would have to take out 33 incumbents to win back the House. As Chris Bowers notes, that is all but impossible:
In 2006 and 2008, Democrats won the national popular vote by 6.49% and 8.65% respectively. Despite this, they still only defeated 37 Republican incumbents in those two years combined. With Republicans nowhere close to that level of strength in the generic congressional ballot, it is still more likely than not that Democrats will retain control of the House.
The signs are certainly not there for a massive Republican wave. In fact, what early advantages Republicans have had appear to be receding: CONTINUED
Daily Kos: 2010: The tide is turning
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