By GARY SCHARRER
AUSTIN BUREAU June 20, 2010, 11:44PMAUSTIN — The demographer who warned a decade ago about Texas’ unhappy mix of dismal education achievement and high poverty is more concerned than ever. Actually, he’s frightened.
Also getting restless are growing numbers of Texas business executives. Some don’t see much leadership from politicians or the private sector in attacking the trend line that demographer Steve Murdock says will result in three of every 10 workers not having a high school education by 2040.
"I don’t see business rearing up, and I sure don’t see the state Legislature, with an $18 billion problem, saying, ‘Man, we really need to muscle this thing up.’ I think the thing that’s going to change it is going to be another lawsuit," said Jack Lowe, chairman of Dallas-based TDI Industries and a board member of the Texas Business and Education Coalition.
The state’s public schools have more and more low-income kids and persistently high dropout rates – and unless that changes, the future of Texas will contain more long-term unemployment and poverty – and more folks depending on food stamps, Medicaid and CHIP, Murdock said. Higher incarceration rates also can be expected.
"Clearly, with the dismal levels that we have in terms of education right now, that’s clearly where we’re headed," Murdock said.
The trend line also is clear: School districts with large numbers of low-income students have higher dropout rates. Large school districts where low-income students make up at least 80 percent of the enrollment have dropout/attrition rates of 50 percent or more.
Murdock, a sociology professor at Rice University who headed the U.S. Census Bureau in the recent Bush administration, said Texas’ large, young population would give the state a competitive advantage if educated and trained for the work force. Increasing the college graduation rate of Hispanics and African-Americans to that of whites could mean about $300 billion a year in additional income for Texans, he said.
