We will see if the likely voter model post Obama 2008 election is correct. Based on my empirical contact with several voters in a Conservative district I am dubious about the validity of the current polls. I will be honest, given the destruction the Republicans have imparted on the country for the last 30 years, I simply cannot believe that voters are sufficiently naïve to put them back in power without them offering specifics to turn the economy around.
In fact, they are promising corporatist policies in the veil of small government that would further outsource our jobs. They are promising to remove the protection from insurance companies afforded by the healthcare reform bill. They are promising to dismantle the consumer protection agencies and other protections in the financial reform bill.
One must ask, why would a voter hurt their financial well-being to punish a recovery that is moving much too slow? If they do, it would have been a communication failure by the President and Democrats as well as our corporatist main stream media. After all, Americans would not have understood that the pilfering of the middleclass over the last 30 years left our country stripped of the possibility of creating massive number of jobs quickly. It is a paradigm shift.
My Book: As I See It: Class Warfare The Only Resort To Right Wing Doom
Book’s Webpage: http://books.egbertowillies.com – Twitter: http://twitter.com/egbertowillies
With less than 24 hours before Election Day, widely varying poll results have political junkies scratching their heads. We have a lot of new data to review but the big picture boils down to this: If you believe the national poll results released last night by the Gallup Organization, the granddaddy of all pollsters that has been measuring voter preferences on mid-term elections since the 1950s, the Republicans are poised to win a victory of nearly unprecedented scope, winning a huge majority in the House and probably taking control of the Senate as well. If you believe the aggregate of all the other polls — nationally as well as state and district level — Republicans will likely gain a narrow majority in the House but fall short in the Senate.
National Vote
The national polls have continued to diverge widely over the weekend, especially in terms of their results on the so-called "generic" question that asks, without providing specific names, whether voters intend to support the Republican or Democratic candidate in their congressional district. The results released over the weekend ranged from the four-point Republican advantage (49% to 45%) on the ABC News/Washington Post poll to the extraordinary 15-point Republican tsunami (55% to 40%) forecast by the venerable Gallup poll.
Final Election 2010 Polls Diverge: Will It Be Tsunami Or Bad Storm?
