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Mitt Romney’s real (but ebbing) debate bounce
With a fuller post-debate picture, it’s now clear that Mitt Romney scored a definitive post-debate polling bump.
Registered voters’ preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday’s presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.
So in the three pre-debate polls, Obama led 50-45, in the three days after, it was 47-47. So is there reason to panic? Well, Sunday turned into a monster Obama day, because suddenly Obama leads 50-45 once again. Right where things began. Here’s the last seven days of Gallup results. The debate was on October 3rd, so everything above the dotted line includes post-debate samples.
The gray results are those during the period in which Romney had tied up Obama 47-47, so that Sunday must’ve been monstrous for Obama as he pushed back out to a healthy five-point lead. (Brad DeLong guesstimates it was Obama 57, Romney 38, which smacks of outlier — hence the seven-day smoothing).
On the other hand, this chart shows just how stable the race has been, even after Obama’s subpar debate performance: his numbers have fluctuated between 49 and 50. Romney’s between 44 and 46. We’re not talking wild swings here, just some rejiggering along the margins.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen seems to agree on a solid Obama Sunday:
Obama erased a two-point deficit in Rasmussen tracker on Sunday night. Again, even Rasmussen’s famously volatile tracker appears fairly stable — with both candidates swinging between just two points, 47 and 49. The last daily tracker, from Ipsos/Reuters, has actually given Romney his biggest boost:
Romney’s gain in the Ipsos polling comes entirely from rallying the GOP base, something Romney appears to have finally done. Unlike the other two trackers, Ipsos doesn’t seem to have caught an Obama recovery on Sunday.
Note, tomorrow’s weekly poll from PPP for Daily Kos and SEIU will show Romney with a lead, with the bulk of respondents coming the Thursday and Friday after the debate.
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