Donald Trump could actually win
There is no parallel to the current election. These are very strange times.
In the Democratic Party, a Democratic Socialist is much better liked than the anointed establishment candidate. But the establishment candidate is more likely to win.
In the Republican Party, all of the establishment candidates made early exits. The least liked candidate won the Republican nomination.
Republicans voted for the candidate articulating a populist message. The populist Democratic candidate wins in mostly open Democratic Primaries. The Democratic candidate with the incrementalist message wins in the mostly closed Democratic Primaries. As such, the incrementalist Democrat will likely win. In a kind of disturbing irony, Republicans are voting for hope while Democrats are voting out of fear which I wrote about a few weeks ago.
Liberals and Progressives everywhere are salivating. Many of them believe a Donald Trump win in the Republican Primaries is a gimmie. Van Jones, a Democratic strategist/pundit, is cautioning Democrats to stop assuming it will be an easy win. He appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher and said the following.
“It is important for Liberals not to get too happy to put him down, to put Trump down,” Van Jones said. “I tell you why. He can win the presidency. All these Liberals say, ‘He can’t possibly win because seventy percent of African Americans hate him.’ Hold on a second. That means … You should be less happy. You should be terrified because that means thirty percent might be opened to him. But listen. Seriously, if thirty percent of African Americans are opened to him and half of those vote for him, he is president. In other words, African Americans have to vote ninety percent against him. So if seventy percent are against him, we are going to lose. People need to calm down. No people need to freak out.”
A few days later he appeared on CNN and expanded that caution with the following statement.
“The hammer will fall in the Rust Belt,” Van Jones said. “He can go to the Rust Belt, Donald Trump. This is our big fear. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and he can say as he was saying. First of all to the black community he can say you have been poor a long time. I am rich. Give me a chance. He can say to the workers, this family, the Clintons signed NAFTA, stole all your jobs. This is what I am going to do. I am going to tear up NAFTA. Seal the borders. The jobs will come back. You will get them, not the Mexicans. Give me a shot. And I am going to tell you, he only has to get three African Americans out of twenty to agree with that and he is president.”
CNN’s Political Prediction Market gives Donald Trump a 21% odd of winning the presidency. A recent CNN/ORC poll has Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 54%/41%. RealClearPolitics at the time of this article has Hillary Clinton winning by 6.5% (47.3%/40.8%).
Polls are a good tool until they aren’t. They have been a bit erratic in the primaries, missing some contests by large swaths. Generally, I do not discount polls. However, I believe Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are wildcards. I think many voters will vote for Donald Trump but will not tell pollsters out of a sort of shame. I think many as well will vote for Bernie Sanders and not admit it because of the stigma the word ‘socialist’ carries in the minds of many.
Americans really want change. They wanted it in 2008. They did get a lot of change. They rewarded that change in 2012 by reelecting President Obama. The problem is that the specific change they got has not made their lives sufficiently better and for many not better at all.
Republicans have decided to throw away conventional wisdom, the establishment. Democrats are likely to decide to play it safe and stay with the establishment. That puts the entire election in flux.
A friend roamed around Utah a few years ago performing a skit called ‘Bread and Circus’ that illustrates the folly of many people. The skit described how old empires used to control their populous by giving them just enough bread to survive and then sedate them with entertainment.
Donald Trump already keeps many Americans sedated with entertainment. Now many are expecting him to feed them. As the election season goes forward, who will offer the best food and entertainment in the eyes of the voter? Here is the truth. I fear Donald Trump.