The GOP knows that demographics and their codified ideology are against them in the long run. And that is the very reason Trumpcare has a better than a 50/50 chance of passing. Here is why.
Republicans are in complete control of the government. Yes, they do not have a filibuster proof Senate. But even that could be remedied by invoking the nuclear option.
America is not living through regular times. The fact that Donald Trump was elected, the fact that Republicans are acquiescing to a man that is at best a fraud but more a con throughout his business life is probative.
The reality is that right now the Republican Establishment cares about nothing but restructuring America's social safety net. In other words, they want to destroy it for their ideological reasons. They are of the firm belief that the wealthy earned their wealth from their worth, risk, blood, sweat, and tears. And as such, they are entitled to the vast majority of the spoils.
Of course, those in the real world understand that it is the masses who create an economy capable of enriching a few. It is our system that corrupts the distribution of wealth and income.
Trumpcare, as explained elsewhere, is a tax cut bill, masquerading as a health care bill. It gets there by repealing many of the taxes Obamacare imposed on the wealthy. Medicaid, the portion of Obamacare that helps the poor and near poor gets decimated. The Republicans need that money to make their tax reform whole.
Republicans are willing to take risks and pass a very unpopular bill for several reasons.
- Republicans have become even more tribal, and they may believe that even if they make an unpopular vote, their voters will not vote for a Democrat.
- They know if they make the draconian changes that hurt the middle-class, even a Democratic Congress will not move back the pendulum. A Republican president would be there long enough to ensure that many of the changes remain for a period allowing the rich the capture of an inordinately larger portion of the country's wealth.
- Worse case, Republicans losing their seats because of their vote would likely get support or a job from their wealthy benefactors.
I wrote a piece a few weeks ago titled "Obamacare is in danger of laying the path for Trumpcare" which presents yet another concern that will give Republicans a talking point for passing their bill. I wrote the following.
The individual market is here to stay in the long run. The short term chaos is designed to disrupt the market to reinstitute the very profitable predatory type health insurance policies with little to no protections. Under this scenario, healthy people will like find fairly competitively priced health insurance. People with preexisting conditions may find affordable insurance with exclusions of their preexisting conditions. Otherwise, they will be priced out of health insurance altogether. Older people can forget about insurance till Medicare kicks in.
Democrats have not done enough to prepare Americans for the spikes and disruption they will see in 2018 and beyond. And Republicans are very effective in false counternarratives. So it will be no surprise that the combination of Trump's Russia Scandal monopolizing most news media and Republican propensity to lie effectively will ultimately cast the blame on Obamacare and Democrats.
In my humble opinion, the only thing that will stop Republicans is if they get an inkling that a filibuster-proof Senate is coming again for the Democrats along with a Democratic House. A sabotaged Obamacare failure and a 'mean' Trumpcare opens the door for a single-payer Medicare for all system sooner than later. So if you are reading this, it is all in your hands and what you do going forward. Not only must you get in the streets but you must keep your Senators and Congresspersons in your daily correspondence, and social media interactions. You must comment on op-eds in newspapers, and write your own op-eds in every local and national newspaper. Such a groundswell may even scare the Republican benefactors. And we all know that is who politicians listen to more so than their own constituents.
Also published on Medium.