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Obama’s senior economist Jason Furman believes that just before the election Trump’s economic indicators could begin to soar. For those who do not understand economics and relative growth, we will need to tell the truth about the absolute data which will be bad.
Trump soaring economic indicators?
From the Politico article “The general election scenario that Democrats are dreading.”
A rebound won’t mean that Trump has solved many underlying problems. Since the crisis started, many employers have gone bankrupt. Others have used the pandemic to downsize. Consumption and travel will likely remain lower. Millions of people in industries like hospitality and tourism will need to find new jobs in new industries.
The scenario would be a major long-term problem for any president. But before that reality sets in, Trump could be poised to benefit from the dramatic numbers produced during the partial rebound phase that is likely to coincide with the four months before November.
That realization has many Democrats spooked.
“In absolute terms, the economy will look historically terrible come November,” said Kenneth Baer, a Democratic strategist who worked in a senior role at the Office of Management and Budget under Obama. “But relative to the depths of April, it will be on an upswing — 12 percent unemployment, for example, is better than 20, but historically terrible. On Election Day, we Democrats need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’ Republicans need voters to ask themselves, ‘Are you better off than you were four months ago?’”
To be clear, the economy will remain in the dumps irrespective of relative growth. It is that reality we have to make sure Americans understand instead of huge percentage growths from very depressed economic numbers.
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