We must examine the Kansas vote and polling more closely. The likely voter model is likely off by a bunch. This Meet The Press analysis may have a partial answer. Democrats may win.
Democrats may win it all in 2022
The polls made it seem that those wanting to change the Kansas constitution to control women’s bodies were close or biased to those who could only be called the American Taliban. That would not be the case. It was not even close.
As things stand in the Co/efficient poll shared with FiveThirtyEight, 47% of the more than 1,500 voters sampled support the so-called “Value Them Both” amendment, and 43% are against it. The remaining 10% are undecided.
Instead, it was an 18% point win. Why were the polls off by so much? While the mainstream media often reports on the loudest and not reality, fair voting is absolute. It is not tempered by interpretation.
Every mainstream media host should read the recent Meet The Press analysis. It may make their reporting more accurate.
- Republicans are trading college-educated voters in the aggregate for most without a college education.
- Democrats are acquiring more college-educated voters.
- College-educated voters vote at much higher rates.
- Voters without a college education dropoff much more during midterms.
2018 was a good example of what that means for the makeup of the electorate. More importantly, the failure of the polls in the abortion vote in Kansas may cement that reality in the minds of those covering the news. One can hope.
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