Many will laugh when one states that a crowded Republican field should scare Democrats. However, that is likely the case.
It is not 2008. The dynamics of the presidential run will be quite different. One thing is certain, much of the Washington DC punditry continue to be backward looking. They prognosticate based on past occurrences instead of on more deterministic data.
Many pundits discount Chris Christie and Jeb Bush under the premise that a moderate cannot win the Republican nomination. Of course Mitt Romney, a moderate governor of Blue State Massachusetts won. John McCain, a moderate won. While it is true they veered right while campaigning in the primaries, GOP voters knew exactly what they were doing.
The last crowded field of Republicans included the comedy detail comprising Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain, the quirky detail comprising Ron Paul, and Gary Johnson, the lecturing detail comprising Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, and the competent detail comprising Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman. That type of field allowed a Mitt Romney to emerge as the candidate.
Tea Party support in America has fallen from 31% to 21%. It still receives 36% Republican support. That 36% support is however deceptive. Anyone living in any state where the Tea Party is very active knows one thing. Tea Party members are some of the most politically engaged voters in America. Their voting performance exceeds their numbers.
2016 will give Tea Party Republicans ample choices. They will likely have Mike Huckabee, Dr. Ben Carson, and a couple others. The establishment will have Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and maybe Mitt Romney. It is likely only one of those three would stay in as the establishment candidate.
And then there is Rand Paul. Rand Paul is still loved by the Tea Party. He has been making inroads in the minority community so much so that even Al Sharpton expresses some concern. Most Americans are low information voters and will know little about Rand Paul’s past. He has a certain appeal with a sect of liberal and conservative young voters as well.
The possibility exists that either the establishment candidate or Rand Paul will come out of the Republican Primary. Hillary Clinton will be either’s ideal candidate. Jeb Bush is insulated from Wall Street attacks because Hillary Clinton has developed strong Wall Street roots. Rand Paul will come across as a fresh face. A case was made here that stated if he became the nominee, unlike what many believe, he could be President of the United States.
All of those getting ready for a comedic replay of what Republican primaries have become should settle down. They may not get the last laugh this time.
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