The above headline is one that I don’t like even if it rings true. There are several reasons why it is dangerous for Democrats to believe them.
Democrats are in the driver’s seat in the 2018 elections, but the electorate can turn on a dime based on events they have no control of that are bound to happen.
Axios reported the following.
Chris Krueger, managing director of Cowen & Co.’s Washington Research Group, said he sees four “glaring red flags for the House GOP majority”:
- The correlation between the president’s approval number and first-term midterm losses by the president’s party: In the six times that the president’s job approval was under 50%, the average loss was more than 43 seats. The Democrats need 24 to flip the House.
- CA + PA = half-way there: California is the citadel of the resistance, which has 14 House Republicans. Between retirements, losing state-and-local tax deductions in the tax bill, and Trump’s California disapproval, the Golden State could lose half its GOP delegation. The new Pennsylvania redistricting map — and similar anti-Trump trend lines — could cost Rs as many as six seats. These two states get you halfway to a Democratic House.
- Suburban danger zones: 2018 could make the suburbs great again for the House Democrats. The Democratic victories in last year’s Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races could well be the canaries in the coal mine. Remember that there are 23 House Republican seats in districts Clinton won — and most are suburban.
- Trump Coalition Unique to Trump: This is the biggest wildcard. Just like we saw with Obama voters in the midterms of 2010 and 2014, we suspect the unique coalition that supported the president will not turn out for generic House members of that President’s party. Just as Obama voters didn’t turn out for generic House Democrats, Trump-centric voters won’t come out for generic House Republicans. You do not drain the swamp by reelecting the establishment and the deep state.
While Democrats are in a great spot, they must prepare for externalities that can flip public sentiment rather quickly. I wrote about this in the article titled “Democrats, prepare for outside forces that could stymie impending Blue Wave.” I hope Democrats get the basic tenet of the article. They must point out ad nauseam that because of the Trump administration that,
- the possibility of terrorist attacks are very likely before the election,
- a health insurance price spike is on the horizon partly because of the tax cut scam effected into law and partly because of the Trump administration sabotage,
- and the stock market could crash.
Democrats and Progressives must repeat those possibilities and Trump as causal over and over again. Most importantly they must provide affirmative positions that they will have to mitigate all three and then specify that they will solve the student debt problem, the low wage problem, and many of the other ills that affect the poor and middle-class.
