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I continue to be baffled by these studies by supposedly reputable think tanks that continue to project that America will be a majority non-white country soon, specifically 2045. If it were true it would be a good thing because it would really reflect what the world looks like and live up to its melting pot moniker. Unfortunately, it is not true and here is why.
The Brookings Institution released the article “The U.S. will become “minority white” in 2045, Census projects” that must be taken with a grain of salt. It reads,
New census population projections confirm the importance of racial minorities as the primary demographic engine of the nation’s future growth, countering an aging, slow-growing and soon to be declining white population. The new statistics project that the nation will become “minority white” in 2045. During that year, whites will comprise 49.9 percent of the population in contrast to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.8 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations (see Figure 1).
The largest “non-white” group listed at 24.6% is Hispanic. The problem is that many white Hispanics/Latinos do not self-classify as white even though they, in fact, are white. A few years ago I wrote the piece titled “White People Not “Latinos” Will Be The Real Swing Vote For The Foreseeable Future” that is worth reading. It has a political context and I ended it with the following.
For those who continue to think that Democrats can somehow get a baked in majority or lasting political power with this “new reality”, they better think twice. Just like the American populace is diverse with liberal and conservative values, so is the Latino population. When the elements of fear are removed from them they will exhibit the diverse behavior and voting preferences of the typical American. Latinos are generally more religious and conservative on issues like abortion which makes them easy pickups for Republicans when their culturally ignorant members die out or when the economy becomes robust.
Democrats need to take this time and understand who the real swing voters are. White people will be the only swing voter in America for the foreseeable future. As such it is in the best interest of Democrats that as Republicans start fighting for Latinos (likely the white ones), Democrats start fighting to bring more white men (and women) into their ranks. A party perceived to be the party of minorities is not viable.
I hope Democrats and Progressives stop waiting for demographic help to win elections. ALL Americans share specific need solved by the tenets found in the Democratic Platform that make that help unnecessary if they would just articulate them in a district-specific manner when campaigning and produce them when in office.
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