I just received the Quinnipiac University Poll, and it is a shocker. What Beto O’Rourke is doing throughout Texas is working. He has seven more months to close the deal. It is clear he likely will.
According to Quinnipiac,
The closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas is too close to call, with 47 percent for Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz and 44 percent for U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.
There are wide party, gender, age and racial gaps, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:
- O’Rourke gets 87 – 9 percent support from Democrats and 51 – 37 percent backing from independent voters, as Republicans go to Cruz 88 – 6 percent;
- Men back Cruz 51 – 40 percent, while women go 47 percent for O’Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz;
- Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 50 – 34 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 50 – 43 percent;
- White voters back Cruz 59 – 34 percent, as O’Rourke leads 78 – 18 percent among black
voters and 51 – 33 percent among Hispanic voters.
I find it disconcerting that someone with such a poor record with people of color continues to do as well as he is in the polls with them. That gives Beto O’Rourke’s team, not Beto O’Rourke himself the opportunity to better his numbers by educating people on Cruz’s real values.
The Quinnipiac poll continued.
Sen. Cruz gets lackluster grades, including a 47 – 45 percent job approval rating and a 46 – 44 percent favorability rating. O’Rourke gets a 30 – 16 percent favorability rating, but 53 percent of Texas voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion of him.
Texas voters “like Ted Cruz as a person” 47 – 38 percent. Voters “like Beto O’Rourke as a person” 40 – 13 percent with 47 percent undecided.
“Democrats have had a target on Sen. Ted Cruz’s back, and they may be hitting the mark. Once expected to ‘cruise’ to reelection, the incumbent is in a tight race with Democratic U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
“The key may well be independent voters. O’Rourke’s 51 – 37 percent lead among that group is key to his standing today. But Texas remains a strong GOP state so O’Rourke will need the independent strength to pull the upset.”
At 25 percent each, immigration and health care are the most important issues in their U.S. Senate vote, with 22 percent for the economy and 16 percent for gun policy.
Here is the entire Quinnipiac University poll.