As I shopped at the HEB grocery store, I ran into one of my Occupy Kingwood cohorts and activist. He was not in the best political mental state. For a while euphoria was high about a massive Democratic win a few weeks ago. But now he began to feel the 2016 gripe in the stomach again.
“I have a feeling this election is not going to be like any other,” he said. “What do you think about the polls?”
I told him while I believe in science and polls, it is important to note that correct polling is difficult and as such, it is only as good as the sample.
I interviewed one of the better Democratic pollsters, Celinda Lake, a principal at Lake Research Partners while attending Netroots Nation 2018. She cautioned about exuberance over the yet to materialize Blue Wave. She agrees that polls right now have issues with modeling who and what turnout will look like on November 6th, 2018. She is concerned about who the hidden voters are.
The activist told me his feeling from being in the field with a Progressive candidate in a Red district is that he does not believe it will be a close election. He thinks the American populace will break hard on one side or the other. Many others have said as much.
If one believes the polls, Donald Trump’s approval ratings are improving. At the same time, a recent Fox News poll shows Obamacare exceeding 50% favorability, way ahead of the 40% for the Trump/GOP tax cut scam. How can the president determine to kill Obamacare and the reinstitution of the discrimination against those with pre-existing conditions be going up in the polls as Obamacare support grows? There is a certain level of cognizant dissonance with many Trump supporters. Most importantly it shows the effectiveness of Republican messaging during the worst of times.
Last week I wrote the following in the article “How can the GOP cripple health care, Social Security, Medicare while driving huge deficits and win?”
Republicans are starting to build a cohesive message that all conservative and right-wing media, politicians and pundits are rolling off of their tongue ad nauseam. And they are doing it in a conniving manner. ...
It is still not too late. However, anyone who remembers the Buffalo Bills comeback on the Houston Oilers should have pause. To date, it is still the largest comeback in NFL history. Democrats could themselves make history if they don't fight as if they are ten points behind. They must put Republicans on the defensive making them defend the ACA/preexisting conditions sabotage, their hypocrisy as they rack up unheard-of deficits, the poisoning of their constituents with deregulation and much more. It is not at all difficult for us to repeat these issues that will help all Americans in their daily lives ad nauseam. Democrats must not allow Republicans to put them on the defensive based on lies using smoke and mirrors as their method of deflection. It is time to win once and for all.
Not unlike Reagan, Trump has a sugar-coated boost built on top of a solid Obama economy. It was refreshing to read Robert Freeman's Common Dreams article "The Market Weighs in on Trump's Economic Policies." Trump is Reagan on steroids. Americans are being hoodwinked into believing that the current economy is real and sustainable. Math will prevail, and a bad crash and social program disruptions are on the horizon
Republicans do not have a real winning message. What they have is a chaotic message that left alone create a chaotic America and a comparable psyche. Unless filled with convincing alternatives these psyches can absorb, many Americans will accept the status quo. If enough do, the 2016 outcome even with the winds supposedly at our backs will materialize in the next few days left to Midterm 2018.
The Occupy Kingwood activist may be right. This election could break right or left sharply in the next few days, and it is all dependent on who plays a better hand. Trump is great at playing the American people.
The reality is that we have the better hand if we decide to play it. As Robert Reich recently wrote, it is not about going high when they go low. It is about going bold. Progressives know what polls have been saying for some time. Many on the Left have behaved shackled away from their excellent Progressive ideas that Americans say they want because of the Right and many Centrists. If in the next few days we make Americans “feel” that we will come through, the Blue Wave could be the direction where Midterm 2018 breaks. It is our only saving grace.