Peter A. Brown, Quinnipiac University poll’s Assistant Director, appeared on Politics Done Right to discuss the Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) surge to a virtual tie with Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX).
Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Peter A. Brown
Quinnipiac released The Quinnipiac University Poll of Texas candidates. The results were much better than expected for Beto O’Rourke. It was a virtual tie, 43/47% Beto O’Rourke / Ted Cruz. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 3.6%. In effect, the race is a virtual tie between O’Rourke and Cruz.
For the first time, Quinnipiac University polled Texas candidates. Brown pointed out that in the past they mostly surveyed east of the Mississippi. While they don’t reveal their polling schedule to the public, given today’s races, ‘why not” poll Texas.
Brown said they polled the Senate race, the Governor’s race, and Donald Trump’s favorability. Brown said Donald Trump is a little more popular in Texas, by about a point or two than in the country as a whole. But still, he is overall unpopular by approximately ten points.
I asked Brown if Trump’s unpopularity was correlating with the current state of the races he surveyed. He said that was hard to tell and not immediately apparent.
Brown said that he could not discern if it is time to move Texas from the Conservative column even with the significant demographic changes. Peter Brown said that until an actual vote proves otherwise, one must consider Texas reliably Conservative.
I asked Brown about the enthusiasm of the electorate. He was not impressed by the word. He thinks it is good for raising money, but actual voting is what matters.
Brown said that Independents would determine the Texas Senate. If O’Rourke can keep his current lead with independents, he will do fine in November.
Brown said their queries found that the state is 24% Democratic, 31% Republican, and 36% Independent. I don’t quite buy that Republicans have a 7% point advantage over Democrats given the demographics of the state. My hunch is that a lot of Independents are Democrats who are in hiding.