I just received the embargoed copy of the Quinnipiac University Poll of Texas major state races. It shows Cruz ahead of Beto O'Rourke by 9 points.
Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 – 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto
O’Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac
University Poll released today.
This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac
(KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered
voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made
up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O’Rourke backers.
The poll shows women backing Cruz which indicates to me that the poll's likely voter model may be suspect.
Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O’Rourke. Men back
Cruz 57 – 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 – 32 percent. O’Rourke leads 97 – 3 percent
among black voters and 54 – 45 percent among Hispanic voters.
The party affinity for their respective candidate is not surprising. What we must watch are those voters not claiming any party specifically the Republican Party in subsequent polls.
Republicans back Cruz 94 – 6 percent, as Democrats go to O’Rourke 94 – 4 percent.
Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O’Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.
We will see how well Ted Cruz holds up when we make Texans aware of his stance for their personal health care and Social Security.
Texas likely voters approve 53 – 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a
52 – 43 percent favorability rating. O’Rourke gets a divided 43 – 42 percent favorability rating.
“The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O’Rourke,
and Democratic hopes for an upset win there have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These
numbers may calm that talk,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University
Poll. “Congressman O’Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely
voters like Sen. Cruz better.”
Peter A. Brown may be off base here. First, the likely voter model is at best suspect given the Texans reality and what Ted Cruz represents.
Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 27 percent of Texas
likely voters say, as 21 percent list health care, 16 percent cite the U.S. Supreme Court and 15
percent say the economy.
Americans will see their new health care costs starting in October. If the Beto O'Rourke campaign and volunteers let every Texan know which party and specifically Ted Cruz's complicity, the poll will likely change even assuming a flawed 'likely voter' model.
When the change in Texas occur, when the newly registered and activated voters come into play, something a likely voter model is unable to capture, Beto O'Rourke just may be sitting in the Senate in 2019.
Check out the complete Quinnipiac University poll here.