Yesterday was a deflating day for many Texans as the Quinnipiac University Poll showed Ted Cruz beating Beto O'Rourke by 9 points in their first likely voter polls. The poll was conducted by telephone. Today many may be rejoicing as the new Ipsos poll shows O'Rourke leading by 2% it also is a likely voter poll.
As I mentioned in a video last night, nobody knows what a Texas Likely Voter looks like in 2018. It is probably best to use the registered voter model because the delta will pick up new registrations which will bias the poll automatically to enthusiasm.
Cheer up! If we work hard, Beto O'Rourke wins
Reuters reports the new numbers as follows.
The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Poll released on Wednesday of several competitive U.S. Senate races offered a mixed picture of Democrats’ chances in November of winning the two seats they would need to take control of that chamber. It showed tight races in Arizona, where Democrats are hoping to win a seat held by a retiring Republican, and in Florida, where Republicans aim to unseat a Democratic incumbent. ...
Among the bright spots for Democrats: U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas had a 2-percentage-point lead over Cruz among likely voters in the state and U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona had a 3-point lead over Republican congresswoman Martha McSally in the race to succeed U.S. Senator Jeff Flake, one of Trump’s most vocal critics from within his own party.
Both leads are within the poll’s 4-percentage-point credibility intervals, a measure of precision, meaning the candidates are drawing about the same level of support. The finding suggests that O’Rourke has a shot at becoming the first Democrat to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate in a quarter century.
“There’s a possibility it could happen. I’m not saying probable. But it’s possible,” said Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics. Cruz’s feuds with Trump during his unsuccessful 2016 campaign also hurt his standing with some Texas Republicans, Sabato added, saying: “That damaged him with parts of the Texas electorate that he needs for re-election.”
Again, Democrats and Progressives must play this race as if they are fighting a steep uphill battle. Disregard the polls and work hard as hell to engage people with a message that speaks to them and lead them to Beto O'Rourke as the candidate that will effectuate it.